Mr. Layman -
Think of the world as one big happy family. You have the parents and you have the children. For the majority of your life - post WW 2, you have resided in what is commonly known as a bi-polar world, i.e. the United States and Russia at the helm (parents) up until the early 90's and post Soviet breakup until current, the United States and Western Europe, commanding the socio-economic and political landscape. Many would argue that since the 50's we really have been living in a uni-polar world with the US at the helm. (another story for later).
Back to the issue at hand.
So let's break it down with these central characters - US, EU, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, S. Korea, and Russia. (Note, these 7 countries and the EU collective (let's hope it remains intact).
Remember, one big family.
The Parents: the US and the EU collective
The Children: Brazil, India, Indonesia, S. Korea, Russia,
The Eldest of the children: - China
PEOPLE ARE FREAKING OUT THAT CHINA IS GOING TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD, AND THE WORLD IS ABOUT TO END, ETC. ETC.
No, calm down and slow your roll. All that is really taking place is a little bit of growing up on the part of the children. They are now schooled, have gained wisdom, amassed some political, social, and economic clout, and are ready to progress through adolescence into ADULTHOOD. Simple. You can't keep a child from growing up. I know some of you parents like to hang on.
Now China, as the eldest, is ready to break free. In terms of age, think of China as a 25-30 yr old. Just hitting his/ her stride. As such, many economists predict a muilt-lateral relationship, a tri-polar global system where China joins the parents on the global stage as a player and decision-maker. See excerpt - or skip it, layman. It is kind of boring.
In Global Development Horizons 2011, the World Bank presents what it believes to be the most probable global currency scenario in 2025 – a multicurrency arrangement centered on the dollar, euro, and renminbi. This scenario is buttressed by the likelihood that the US, the eurozone, and China will constitute the three major growth poles at that time.
As for India, S. Korea, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia, these kiddos are coming up fast. They are highly educated, motivated and have been on the sidelines waiting their turn to jump in the game. Think of them as our Generation Y'ers, or perhaps even, the N.I.N.J.A GENERATION - no income, no job, assets. These kiddos want their piece of the pie. And why not? They have earned it through study, hard work and discipline.
So, what do we make of all of this Mr. Layman?
Look, no single country outside of the US and the Euro Zone is going to SOLELY take over the world. Too many checks n balances these days. TRUST ME. Calm Down. It's just China's turn. China is in "go mode". Let's see what China can do. (Don't worry, we'll watch closely)
As for the others, their time is coming as well. It's called E.V.O.L.U.T.I.O.N.
Mr. Layman - I hope this helps.
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